Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 143.227985 171.626773 206.258964 252.295901 312.968076 3.917935e+02 5.047181e+02
2025-03-23 115.520136 151.027738 199.940388 274.870045 391.931114 5.779138e+02 9.201453e+02
2025-03-30 94.965210 131.403916 185.868349 278.134019 442.131602 7.496597e+02 1.462195e+03
2025-04-06 83.009024 120.161908 179.500648 288.978211 507.404400 9.878427e+02 2.413112e+03
2025-04-13 71.854390 107.419083 167.021675 284.266460 540.438660 1.184582e+03 3.591747e+03
2025-04-20 67.536408 104.659786 170.363185 309.679411 649.866978 1.669051e+03 7.038395e+03
2025-04-27 63.454273 101.412532 171.863032 331.678100 765.071978 2.317353e+03 1.468759e+04
2025-05-04 59.462439 97.563023 171.241909 348.725587 879.338767 3.153626e+03 3.330261e+04
2025-05-11 55.429567 92.956075 168.077424 358.667650 980.690808 4.154797e+03 8.318142e+04
2025-05-18 51.430894 87.813061 162.763082 361.466944 1061.941215 5.277947e+03 2.390993e+05
2025-05-25 47.350600 81.967248 154.879215 354.985504 1105.930167 6.321607e+03 7.831232e+05
2025-06-01 43.581345 76.298756 146.482930 344.763213 1129.901846 7.342997e+03 3.763835e+06
2025-06-08 39.843706 70.451249 137.180811 330.655478 1135.386820 8.360905e+03 6.797734e+07
2025-06-15 39.136119 70.818390 142.567670 363.934833 1404.477893 1.462907e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 37.008982 67.896166 139.460538 368.849911 1535.167276 2.063650e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 35.577733 66.313005 139.440866 384.683296 1758.054359 3.381271e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 33.355598 62.726570 133.664452 377.819712 1825.814883 4.470021e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 32.972369 63.245476 138.865063 415.056753 2293.209432 1.122699e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 32.350057 63.133009 142.343274 447.616256 2814.529664 3.396177e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 31.498036 62.375726 143.871251 473.048642 3353.811813 1.378291e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 30.402388 60.909880 143.081497 487.959865 3836.159986 9.152493e+06 NaN
2025-08-10 29.125531 58.871516 140.251871 492.168645 4208.914452 2.414280e+08 NaN
2025-08-17 27.635066 56.169266 135.002642 482.430633 4359.489977 NaN NaN